Difference between revisions of "104.7 Scoping Estimates"

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m (Smithk moved page 104.7 Estimates to 104.7 Scoping Estimates: Per Bidding and TP)
m (Per Bidding and TP, estimate guidance was clarified to reflect current practice in estimating.)
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|'''Related Information'''
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|'''Figure'''
 
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|[https://www.modot.org/statewide-transportation-improvement-program-stip MoDOT's STIP website]
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|[[media:Fig 104.7.docx|Cost Estimate Guide for Scoping]]  
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|'''Figures'''
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|[[media:104.7 EngFac SFY 16 to 18.pdf|Engineering Factors Report]]
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|[[media:Fig 104.7 Dec 18 2017.doc|Cost Estimate Guide for Rural Preliminary Design]]  
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Project scoping estimates based on cost per mile factors shall in no case be considered to contain sufficient detail to allow their inclusion in the STIP.  The [[media:Fig 104.7 Dec 18 2017.doc|Cost Estimate Guide for Rural Preliminary Design]] includes cost per mile factors derived from similar projects as well as the generic factorsIn addition, estimates of right of way costs based on generic land values will not be considered to provide the level of confidence that MoDOT requires to make STIP commitments.
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Estimates based on cost per mile shall in no case be considered to contain sufficient detail to allow their inclusion in the STIP.
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The scoping estimate is used to determine solutions for a project.  There may be multiple scoping estimates for a project since there are multiple solutions for a project.  The district determines which solution best fits the purpose and need of the project and begins preliminary plans stage during which the [[121.7 Program Estimates|Program Estimate]] is complete.  The Program Estimate shall not use the cost per mile pricing because there are too many unknowns and assumptions made during the scoping stage of a project to produce an accurate Program EstimateThe Program Estimate shall be at the preliminary plans stage after 30% of the plans are completed.
  
The best type of estimate that can be produced at this stage of [[:Category:138 Project Development Chronology|project development]] is a historic-based estimate.  Based on the quantities calculated from the preliminary plans and historical data from previous bid openings, a fairly accurate estimate can be produced.  The methodology of this type of estimate is the same as that used to produce the Engineer’s Estimate described in [[103.1 Bid Opening and Award Process#103.1.8 Engineer's Estimate|EPG 103.1.8 Engineer's Estimate]].
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The cost per mile assumption used to develop the scoping estimate should be derived using data from similar, recently-awarded, projects in the region.
  
While the scoping estimate is only based on preliminary quantities, the preliminary plans should provide enough detail to allow a fairly accurate estimate of the major project quantities.  Generally, 80% of the cost of a project will be included in the 20% of the [http://www.modot.mo.gov/business/contractor_resources/biditemslisting.htm pay items] that comprise the major items included in the project.  Most typically these items will consist of the grading, drainage and paving quantities.
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Where similar projects are not found, the Cost Estimate Guide for Scoping may be usedThe [[media:Fig 104.7.docx|Cost Estimate Guide for Scoping]] includes cost per mile factors derived from similar projects as well as the generic factors. These factors typically are for the major items of work and do not include other anticipated work that would be required to construct the project.  All other anticipated construction costs should be included in the scoping estimate which is typically assumed at 20% but may be more or less depending on the project.
 
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Tentative right of way lines included on preliminary plans will provide a reasonable estimate of the easements and right of way required for each project.  These can then be combined with an estimated amount for each property to arrive at a fairly accurate right of way estimate.
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By their nature some projects are not as complex as others and the determination of accurate cost estimates and schedules does not require the same level of effort to reach an acceptable level of project detail.  These less complex projects typically also have a much smaller budget and overall project development timeline.  In fact, the need may not be identified and delivered to the project manager until the anticipated construction year is within the first few years of the STIP.  For these projects it will be acceptable to include a cost adjustment factor with the estimates to compensate for the unknown factors that may not be identified as a result of the short amount of time provided to scope the projectTypical examples of this type of project are minor resurfacing, contracted maintenance, or level course projects.  Most projects will not fall into this category.
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[[image:104.7 Estimates.jpg|left|575px]]
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|'''Historic Engineering Factors Reports'''
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|[[media:104.7 Engineering Factors Report 06 to 08.pdf|CY 2006 - 2008]]
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|[[media:104.7 Engineering Factors Report 07 to 09.pdf|CY 2007 - 2009]]
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|[[media:104.7 Engineering Factors Report 08 to 10.pdf|FY 2008 - 2010]]
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|[[media:104.7 Engineering Factors Report 10 to 12.pdf|FY 2010 - 2012]]
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|[[media:104.7 Engineering Factors Report 11 to 13.pdf|FY 2011 - 2013]]
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|[[media:104.7 Engineering Factors Report 12 to 14a.pdf|FY 2012 - 2014]]
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|[[media:104.7 Engineering Factors Report 13 to 15.pdf|FY 2013 - 2015]]
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|[http://sharepoint/systemdelivery/TP/stwideprogs/balancesheets/Shared%20Documents/EngrFactors/sfy14to16/EngrFactorsRptTo16.pdf FY 2014 - 2016]
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|[[media:104.7 EngFac SFY 15 to 17.pdf|FY 2015 - 2017]]
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|[[media:104.7 EngFac SFY 16 to 18.pdf|FY 2016 - 2018]]
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The majority of projects are more complex, typically include a much larger budget, and require a greater level of effort to achieve accurate estimates of cost and schedules.  For these projects the inclusion of a cost adjustment factor is not an acceptable substitute for completing all the steps of the project scoping process necessary to properly define the parameters of the project.
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All other anticipated right of way and construction costs should also be included in the project estimate.  These may include Heritage and Homestead Valuation adjustment costs for large utility relocations, incentive/disincentive clauses, contract acceleration clauses, major environmental mitigation costs, etc.  The [[media:104.7 EngFac SFY 15 to 17.pdf|Engineering Factors Report]] is a useful document to help calculate a project's future engineering costs such as preliminary and construction engineering and right of way incidentals.  The report is updated annually.
 
  
 
[[category:104_Scope|104.07]]
 
[[category:104_Scope|104.07]]

Revision as of 13:17, 30 August 2019

104.7 Cost.jpg
Figure
Cost Estimate Guide for Scoping

Estimates based on cost per mile shall in no case be considered to contain sufficient detail to allow their inclusion in the STIP.

The scoping estimate is used to determine solutions for a project. There may be multiple scoping estimates for a project since there are multiple solutions for a project. The district determines which solution best fits the purpose and need of the project and begins preliminary plans stage during which the Program Estimate is complete. The Program Estimate shall not use the cost per mile pricing because there are too many unknowns and assumptions made during the scoping stage of a project to produce an accurate Program Estimate. The Program Estimate shall be at the preliminary plans stage after 30% of the plans are completed.

The cost per mile assumption used to develop the scoping estimate should be derived using data from similar, recently-awarded, projects in the region.

Where similar projects are not found, the Cost Estimate Guide for Scoping may be used. The Cost Estimate Guide for Scoping includes cost per mile factors derived from similar projects as well as the generic factors. These factors typically are for the major items of work and do not include other anticipated work that would be required to construct the project. All other anticipated construction costs should be included in the scoping estimate which is typically assumed at 20% but may be more or less depending on the project.